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Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Long EURUSD (small) position opened

Last sunday I bought some EUR at 1.2980 betting on a quick recovery from the French/Greek elections "shock" and French banks taking advantage of a weaker Euro to repatriate more capital. I believe further weakness is highly likely and this position is very small (thousand EUR). Although it has recovered the 1.30 barrier (1.3035) and has proved to be stronger than gold and oil (but weaker than equities), I am not comfortable with this position and will use any spike to close it.

My opinion is that, absent monetary easing, being long is risky even though equities are somehow being levitated, making this a time when being at the long side is very risky. Further bad news out of Europe may send this pair lower. It is easier to open a short position at a comfortably-enough high price (in any high beta asset) and wait for a plunge (such as the ones we have been observing), since volatility to the downside will be higher.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 5:23 AM
Labels: Europe, EURUSD, Forex, Gold, trading

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