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Saturday, June 16, 2012

Awful normalcy bias

I look around and see a lot of people continuously hoping for a return to normal, always claiming that next year will get better (like they did last year), as if times of scarcity were just but rare events in human history.

It is wonderful how short-termed the human brain is. People only remember the last years of consumerism, they only remember buying a wonderful piece of technology that allows them to communicate instantly with anyone no matter where they are in the world, or performing the miraculous action of driving a car and traveling many miles in one hour.

Those things we take for granted and that are a gift from the Earth to the generations that have made use of that energy. With the end of cheap oil comes higher production costs and higher financial needs. With a consumer loaded with debt, factories need credit to perform operational tasks. This makes investment incompatible with higher interest rates, since higher yields won't be payable if consumers don't spend.

What we need to be aware of is that the era we have been living in is over. With the end of cheap and abundant oil comes a societal collapse and a population crash. People take for granted the button on the wall they press and lights go on, the take their car, their phone, their broadband, their movies and their clothes for granted. They observe last century's uptrend and apply linear thinking. So everything has to go up and this is but a bump. It is not, fellas, sorry. From here on bumps will be times where no conflicts and no economic events make the news. No news is good news, as it was always true.

Well, on the trading side, below there is a BAC (via Zerohedge) presentation for Sunday evening market opening you might find interesting. My bias: Awful rats in the leviathan that the EU is have most under control, at least those poor Greek bastards. Surely they ran some campaign to convince the public the EU will be friendly this time and that alternative parties are too crazy to take over the government, like those Golden Dawn cronies harassing people. They will tell "normal is good". All over again. Or maybe they have special ballots that only admit votes to New Democracy. Who knows.

Nothing changes and EURUSD goes to 1.28.


What I am almost sure is that hell does not come tomorrow. It will come, but not tomorrow.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 5:09 AM
Labels: crisis, debt, Energy, Greece, normalcy bias, society, trading

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