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Saturday, June 2, 2012

Liberté, fraternité, egalité ... is all over!

With Mr. Hollande's arrival, France is planning on reducing some worker's retirenemt age from 62 to 60 and keep a lot of social benefits (mind that Hollande was very popular between the immigrant and minority communities). This might be a sign of joy for some, or a sign of delusion for others. In a time when liquid money is king, who will finance all this?

French banks have been liquidating many of their USD-denominated assets and repatriating euros. A drop in French real estate could mean a hard hit in their balance sheets and systemic failure. On the other hand, the state sovereign debt auctions leave those of Spain in the size of a country fair raffle. If Mr. Hollande does not implement austerity measures, he will need to increase the selling of bonds, which will come at a higher yield and the spread with the bund will widen. Once its banks need a bailout, France will enter the same spiral that PIGS went into.

Fight for the State resources will mean further clash between different straits of society, especially between culturally different groups. Recent racist violence coming from second or third generations of immigrants is growing at an alarming pace, and this reflects in the white vote for Marie LePen's far right party. This video gives a very grim outlook of France's future as a society




Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:31 AM
Labels: Europe, France, society

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