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Thursday, October 4, 2012

The exit out of the crisis is hyper-inflationary and (possibly) a full-scale war

Following the BCE's decision to purchase eurozone bonds in the open market, Zerohedge posted the following thougts some days ago:
We will mince no words: Mr. Draghi has opened the door to hyperinflation. There will probably not be hyperinflation because Germany would leave the Euro zone first, but the door is open and we will explain why. To avoid this outcome, assuming that in this context the Eurozone will continue to show fiscal deficits, we will also show that it is critical that the Fed does not raise interest rates. This can only be extremely bullish of precious metals and commodities in the long run. In the short-run, we will have to face the usual manipulations in the precious metals markets and everyone will seek to front run the European Central Bank, playing the sovereign yield curve and being long banks’ stocks. If in the short-run, the ECB is the lender of last resort, in the long run, it may become the borrower of first resort!
Argentina prohibited the hoarding of foreign currencies, are trading is done under heavily government surveillance and even Paypal has canceled operations with Argentinian customers. Their currency is in free fall and the government's stance is to preserve the status quo of the elite in the country by stealing wealth from their citizens via a constant monetization of their corruption. Now the Iranian rial is failing too.

Here's what you need to do to avoid the trap that some very intelligent guys who feed on well-passed history (by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds)
Hedging Against Capital Controls: Opening an Account Overseas 
As financial insecurity and instability rise, hedging becomes increasingly important as a means of capital preservation. One potential hedge is diversifying one's liquid capital by holding some cash in a "safe haven" foreign bank account.
Two signs that fear and instability have reached critical mass are capital flight and capital controls. Capital flight is people and enterprises moving their capital (cash and liquid assets) to an overseas "safe haven" to avoid devaluation of the currency or confiscation of their capital/assets. (Devaluation can be seen as one method of confiscation; high taxes are another.)
Capital controls are the Central State's way of stemming the flood of cash leaving the country. Why do they want to stop money leaving? If we think of each Central State as a neofeudal fiefdom, we understand the motivation: citizens are in effect serfs who serve the State and its financial nobility. If the serfs move their capital out of the fiefdom, it is no longer available as collateral for the banks and a source of revenue for the State.
Once capital has drained away, borrowing and lending shrink, cutting off the revenue source of the banks (financial nobility). Since financial activity also declines as cash is withdrawn from the system, the State's "skim"--transaction fees, sales taxes, VAT taxes, income taxes, wealth taxes, etc.--also declines. Both the State and its financial nobility are at increasing risk of decline and eventual implosion as capital flees the fiefdom.
The Central State imposes capital controls as a means of Elite self-preservation. Sudden devaluations are a way of impoverishing the citizens that also happen to enrich those who transferred their wealth into another currency, a mechanism described here three years ago in The Royal Scam (August 3, 2009).
Those in the know transfer their wealth into another currency before it's illegal, and once the devaluation makes everything in the country much cheaper, they transfer their wealth back into the new currency and buy up all the assets on the cheap.
History shows that the State will "change the rules" overnight to protect itself and its Elites. Capital controls include such measures as limiting the amount of funds that can be transferred out of the country; limiting the amount of gold that can be taken out of the country; barring all transfers of funds overseas; limiting all IRA, 401K and retirement funds to owning government Treasury bonds, and so on.
The U.S. banned private ownership of gold above a few ounces in 1933 as a form of capital control, forcing citizens to keep their capital in cash that could circulate and (supposedly) boost economic activity. (Did it work? Obviously not.)
Central State bureaucracies and Elites can become very creative at expropriating citizens' cash and assets once they feel threatened by a loss of faith in their legitimacy and competence, i.e. capital flight.
For many decades, a Swiss bank account was the standard way that the wealthy hedged the risks of capital controls. As a result of the Federal government's efforts to catch tax cheaters and money laundering, Swiss bank accounts are no longer easily available to Americans.
The most basic hedges against capital controls and devaluation are owning physical gold/silver and diversified holdings of other currencies held in overseas "safe havens." We can see these hedges against instability and insecurity in action around the globe: wealthy Chinese are transferring capital overseas at a furious pace and buying gold, and Spanish citizens have been flying to London to open bank accounts so they can transfer their money out of Spain and Spanish banks. Should Spain leave the euro, the transfer into their traditional currency would amount to a forced devaluation of their cash.
The massive flight of capital out of Spain has been widely reported in the financial media, and it raises an important question for anyone with cash to safeguard: what happens if capital controls become possibilities in the U.S. or Canada?
The idea that the amount of money that could be withdrawn or transferred from your private accounts might be strictly limited may seem farfetched at the moment, but if history teaches us anything about financial crises, it is that the rules are changed overnight to protect the Central State and vested interests.
We cannot control economic, financial and political instability; all we can do is hedge the risks by diversifying our assets and taking control of what we can control.
Readers of my book An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times(print edition) (Kindle version) know that I consider hedging and local control to be essential strategies going forward, and I invite you to check out the book if you want to read more about hedging strategies.
I have explained why I think that What Will Be Scarce: Liquidity and Reliable Income Streams (August 30, 2012). Having capital that is liquid (easily converted into legal tender or moved to safety) and income streams that are reliable, i.e. that are not speculative or dependent on the Central State and are under your own control, are key assets that cannot be replaced.
Over the course of the past few months, New Zealand correspondent Michael Reps and I have been discussing the issue of foreign bank accounts providing a hedge against capital controls, and he has established a way for Americans to open an account in New Zealand with Westpac, a bank with a verifiable history and reputation. (The service is not free to set up, but very little of financial value is free.)
In the spirit of discussing possible hedges that are available to “the rest of us,” i.e. the bottom 99.5%, I have asked Michael to explain the service in a Q&A format. As is my policy, I receive no commission from Michael’s service or any other service mentioned on the site except a no-cost-to-you commission on Amazon purchases and BullionVault investments made via links in the sidebar.
I present this discussion not as a recommendation to take any particular action, but as an invitation to pursue your own research into overseas accounts and hedging in general.
As with any financial decision or transaction, do your own due diligence. This means understanding all the risks and all the potential benefits. Read financial statements, obtain regulatory filings, ask questions, verify what you are told, and so on. Each nation's banking laws and legal system are different. Assume nothing.
There is no perfect hedge. Every hedge has risks. Physical gold can be stolen, expropriated at the border, etc. Any currency can be devalued. Property held overseas can be expropriated by a "new" government. The list is endless.
A hedge is not the same as a speculation, though each has risk. All hedges are imperfect, and so diversification is a key strategy in hedging. The purpose of a hedge is to preserve capital, not score gains as in speculation. An overseas account is a utility, not a means of wealth creation.
I am not an expert in international banking or tax laws, but it is common knowledge that U.S. citizens are required to disclose foreign accounts and report all income regardless of its origin, i.e. all income earned anywhere on the planet must be reported to the IRS. The purpose of an overseas account is not tax evasion, it is capital preservation/hedging, and so having accounts in nations that have tax treaties with the U.S., transparent reporting and rule of law is a definite plus in terms of compliance.
Holding cash in an overseas account in another currency exposes you to the risks of foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations. It is possible to hold other currencies in the U.S., and U.S. dollars in a foreign account. (I use "overseas" and "foreign" interchangably, but obviously an account opened in North America may be foreign but not overseas.) The point is that having a foreign account offers a different sort of hedge than owning a foreign currency.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:49 PM 0 comments
Labels: finance, normalcy bias, real estate, society, sociopaths

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Impressions from a Spaniard in Greece

The following is a first person account from a Spanish citizen who was in Greece and that I found on an Internet board (here it is Google-translated):
Walls full of graffiti and political posters, tiles and marbles busted by the unrest, police in every corner of the city, swaths of people sleeping on the streets, people in Syntagma asking for money to pay for medical treatment, dark and empty streets at nine of the night, as there is no open local. All have closed. Groups of 30 people near the University drugging entire families searching containers, roller shutters banks protected, fully burnt buildings, fire barricades Eksarheia, immigrants escaping from the police ...These are just some of the things I have seen in just 11 days by Athens. I will not roll up because literature is not my strong point, but I've been traveling the country steadily for Anno and a half, and although by then Greece was already in crisis and had always been a troubled country, the transformation that is leaving the country is something brutal.Citizen picks up food parcels from the NGO Doctors of the World
The feeling I have is like this is a failed state, a project that has failed, I come to mind videos of the 60's propagandists, showed that the ideal of family within the capitalist system, happy, going to work, enslaved ... We take a walk through Athens and although still a western town with its colorful lights, their McDonalds ... the feeling you get is to be living in a different reality, one can see the ravages of the crisis and how poverty and misery left in each of the corners.Luckily, the image I have is that the Greeks are at all times resisting to have their head down and always try to keep going, but the situation is very hard, and any time something could explode spontaneously. Regarding speed and indefinite strikes, one of the people with whom I could talk these days I see happening in the near future, because there is still work, involving more sectors of society, etc.. but is working on it and everyone is convinced that they will win.Just do not say you can do it alone and will need our help because everyone sees the crisis as an international thing, only has primed them first and more brutal.
En général, l’art du gouvernement consiste à prendre le plus d’argent qu’on peut à une grande partie des citoyens, pour le donner à une autre partie. 
In general, the art of government consists in taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other. 
Voltaire
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 1:24 PM 0 comments
Labels: crisis, Greece, Wealth

Monday, October 1, 2012

Remember, remember the 25th of September…

Mehr als ein ganzes Jahr seit den ersten griechischen Demonstrationen musste aber vergehen, damit die spanische Bevölkerung nicht nur ein flüchtiges Mitgefühl für sie entwickeln, sondern auch etwas Ähnliches dessen, was sie duldeten, erleben konnte, d.h. Angst, Gefahr... Seit geraumer Zeit war es ja vorauszusehen, dass diese Situation vor den Türen der Spanier bevorstehen würde (genauso wie vor anderen), da sie sich aus schon mal hier besprochenen ökonomischen Gründen nicht mehr behalten kann.

Spanien ist gröβer als Italien bzw. Griechenland und ihre Banken und Politiker hatten seit der Regierung, auf deren Spitze José María Aznar stand, und ihrer Nachfolger das rechtliche Zugeständnis des Volks daran, das Bauwesen unabzählbar unendlich zu viel mittels vom fraktionalen Reservesystem unterstützter Hypothekendarlehen und billiger illegaler Arbeitskräfte, deren Zuschüsse sich eben von der verzinslichen Staat- bzw. Spanienverschuldung in Abhängigkeit befanden, Ansporn zu geben. Deswegen ergab es bereits seit Jahren eine Überlastung der gesetzlichen spanischen Krankenversicherung (heutzutage steht sie aus dem Aus und verweigert die Betreuung den spanischen Staatsbürgern ab 26 Jahre alt, die früher nicht in der Lage waren, die Sozialversicherungsbeiträge zu entrichten) und 2009 natürlich unangemessen teuere auf der Spitze Wohnungspreise, und zwar eine Blase, deren Bezahlung die Spanier ab jetzt durch das von bloβ Politiker abgesprochene Rettungspaket in Kauf genommen haben, um den Banken statt den Staatsbürgern Hilfe zu leisten. Sie hätten vielleicht die Isländer imitieren können, aber nein. Einige sind bereit, diese Kosten und diejenigen, mit denen die Staatsausgaben und die Politiker bzw. die königliche Familie zu ihrem Wohlstand das spanische Konto absichtlich belastet haben, zu übernehmen.

Angesichts dieser genannten Tatsachen wird es allerdings schwierig, sich die Sonderrechten der Oberschicht der Politiker und gespenstiger Bankenführer anzueignen, was ihr leider unglücklicherweise am 25. Oktober versuchtet, auszuführen. Infolgedessen sollte man bei der sehr gewalttätigen Polizeiprügelei nicht schockiert werden, mit der die Fortdauer solcher Sonderrechten eindeutig gewährleistet ist. Kein Wunder, dass es so passiert ist! Darüber hinaus wurden mit Schiβpulver geladene Luftgewehre schon seit der 15M-Demonstration am Mai eingesetzt.

Daraus könnte man folgern, dass ein Kampf ohne Schutzschild zu keinem Gewinn gehört, denn man wird zuerst der Polizei unterliegen. Aber das Wichtigste ist es, zur Kenntnis zu nehmen, dass unsere versprochenen Rechte so schnell aufgelöst werden können, indem sie auf die Oberschicht übergehen.

Du kommst aufgrund der Existenz 7.000 Millionen Menschen auf der Erde nicht in Betracht.
Posted by Evey Hammond at 3:24 AM 0 comments
Labels: crisis, Europe, Germany, Greece, society, sociopaths, Spain
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