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Monday, December 23, 2013

Bitcoin, altcoins and the virtual economy

I've been closely following the Bitcoin phenomenon for some months, loosely for some years now. Disclaimer: I am no fan of Bitcoin, for one reason only, that I will disclose at the end of the post.

First of all, despite the previous disclaimer, let me clarify that Bitcoin is a hughe phenomenon, a true technical breaktrhough that could have only been invented by a true mastermind. One only needs to read Satoshi Nakamoto's paper to see that (and I am not going to deal with the origin or what the intentions of this Bourbaki of the cryptoeconomy might be).

Having said that, I see important flaws in using Bitcoin as a means of online payment (this does not apply to hand-to-hand business): It's reversability. Bitcoin is non-reversible by design, so that if you receive goods that are broken, are not as described, or any other usual (really, really common) problems that you may encounter when buying goods online, you are left all alone. Granted we would have the opposite problem if it was freely reversible: rogue buyers would reverse payments once goods left sellers' facilities. This leaves nothing but the classical third party arbitrage, some kind of escrow system. In case of the current Bitcoin system, imagine that you buy something on AliExpress. People who have will know what I mean. AliExpress is kind of a Chinese ebay, but only direct selling, no auctions. Chinese vendors sell their product, the same (crappy or not) that you can find in your large retailer chain, but for much less. Buy something cheap, receive it at home within 15-60 days. This sounds great, but you need to account for a lot of problems inherent to that scheme: Firstly, you need to know that AliExpress escrow system is worried only about products reaching their destination. Once you get your item, AliExpress urges you to verify that you received it. If you get something broken, they do not automatically honor their returns policy, but involve you in an extenuating, long, and in most cases, infructiferous process of getting your money back. In that case, you totally depend on the seller. Even if the seller has a good reputation, you need to deal with China post (or your local post office for that matter):


Imagine, for a moment, that you buy a nice Xiaomi Red Rice, customized, banded Android, quad core cell phone from a Chinese seller for about USD 200 in Bitcoin.  It was maybe the seller, or maybe China Post, but the cellphone is broken. You depend on the seller's good will more than buying in AliExpress (and that is a lot to say) since he has to send you the funds willingly. You cannot revert the transaction. If you do this operation with a VISA credit card, it takes a call to your bank or to VISA to have it cancelled. And when you get your package from the mailman with all the illustion only to find out that you got a brick, having the possibility of reverting the transaction is, as Mastercard says, priceless.

This is a major problem for transactions in Bitcoin. But it is not the main problem to become a de facto payment system (de iure, governments could outright forbid its use). The main problem is its duplicability. In fact, Litecoin is already an accepted system, as much as Bitcoin is. There is a large number of so-called altcoins (even scam-coins). They are all (except some details such as encryption used) equivalent. So we have a problem of unicity. In case of gold, it is only the 79-th element in the periodic table, it is the only element that provides desirable properties of money. None other is gold. Bitcoin can be duplicated to give the exact service or better. The fact that it was the first coin with this system does not give it more desirable monetary properties. They can be collectionism properties, or something else, and it has certainly value, but they are not monetary at all.

If I have made such an attack on Bitcoin (and altcoin), then why do I say that it is a revolutionary idea? Because this can be the money of the future provided: an escrow system (banks that might charge for that, it is a service after all) and laws designating any of the altcoins as the one to use, grating one system unicity and yielding all properties of money. Absent that, Bitcoin, or any other alt-coin, is a tulip, with only the people's desire to have this or that coin as the only driver of value (or is it prive in USD?).
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 5:13 AM 0 comments
Labels: altcoins, banks, Bitcoin, bubble, Central banks, Economics, Economy

Thursday, December 19, 2013

The truth about Jack Andraka

The truth about Jack Andraka is... that I don't know it, obviously, I am a normal citizent with my mundane whereabouts and I am geographically far away from that character.

But what I can do is using my analytical-logical mind to check his story. In my analysis I will use some insights from this interesting blog entry where some good points are made.

The first thing that catched my eye was his sotry. He is able to outthink the pharmaceutical industry with Wikipedia and some books. He is able to produce a device that is super cheap and is much more accurate than the industry's standard, single-handed. Yet he didn't knew [sic] that we had a pancreas before his uncle died.

This in itself is very fishy. Before delving into the story, let me say something: I know brilliant guys, like 150-160 IC (Intellectual Coefficient) or much more, I don't know exactly, but I know a guy who belongs to the 0.01% of most intelligent people on Earth (he holds several full professorships). This guy, being a genious, got several PhDs and several international recognized awards, and he truly speaks about what he does (dealing with quantum mechanics, Banach spaces, number theory...), his conversations are high standard, and he is respected by equally-brilliant people. This does not happen with Andraka, nobody in medical biochemistry/medicine is seen chatting with him, nor are companies that could potentially produce his gadget.

Let's research a little more about this character. There is a ton of videos, newstories, TED talks, and other material such as an official page and a Wikipedia page.

Let's see his wikipedia page: It looks really professional, with references put where they belong. Yet, if one is so careful about checking them, they turn out to be inconclusive about what they are takin about. There is one that speaks about a patent supposedly filed by Intel (who allegedly was backing him) and the reference is a piece of news by the BBC (the people who live ahead in time and were able to report on bulding 7 collapse before it happened) with no mention of the patent whatsoever.

Now, let's analyze the invention itself: It claims to do a much better job costing about three dollars. Now, first logical problem: if it is so cheap and effective, how come that it is not being used already in all hospitals in the world? Either you are a very bad person for not sharing right away (people could be saved if tested TODAY, after all) or the invention just does not exist. Assuming it exists (and therefore he is evil for not sharing), how did this character build it from his garage? I don't see any "Carbon nanotube integrator" on Ebay, nor I see "Pancreatic cancer pacient blood - 100 milliliters".

There is no research paper. So much for being in the Johns Hopkins working surrounded by researchers. When something is revolutionary it spreads like wind, and this alleged invention has not been replicated up to today. He was awarded a prize for this, yet this invention is kept private. A prize that offers no public access to the product if was awarded is no prize (ohh, let's remember that he is preaching open access now). Some sources claim the guy has ALREADY invented the thing (yet it is not available and almost a couple of years have passed) and they justify the prizes with it, while others say that it is not available and still in development (in which case the prizes are non-sense because it is a promise instead of a product).

TED Talks: A ton of them. He never discloses any technical details, he never speaks about science. Somebody who has invented something cannot stop talking about the inners of his creation. He just does not do that. He rants about how modern medicine is wrong (even though our life expectation as steadily increased in part thanks to it), and how adults are just obtuse (yeah wonderboy). The rant is complemented with shots of people nodding and smiling, as if they were part of something bigger, a happy community, a religious event. They are not offered a technical explanation, not even scientific proof, and they smile. Like sheep to the slaughterhouse.

Johns Hopkins: He was allegedgly turned down from 199 universities and at the round number 200 he was granted... I don't know, being there. It looks like even the Johns Hopkins university does not know what he does in the The Sidney Kimmel Comprehensive Cancer Center, where there is no evidence of his presence, apart from the same press releases you can find in Google. Were and when institutions are proud of having a genious, they would grant him an offical place, within an official group. This are done that way, look for Terence Tao in UCLA, a true genious.

Let's see his Facebook page. It is a Zen-temple where all the incautious pancreating cancer patients or relatives crawl around (and I say this with no disrespect for them), along with his I-dunno-understand-nothing fanboys. He is blogging everyday, posting stuff like a community manager, avoiding science questions. He posts pictures of him traveling around the world, meeting dignataries, visiting places... Ohh my God, Jack, you are so popular, when do you have time to get your research done?

Lastly, upon closing this post, I sumbled upon this shit page, where everything goes crazy and they evey say he conducted the research at the Johns Hopkins. They even say the kid won a math pize????? Everything goes now.

I'll finish off by quoting the blog I mentioned:

But the strongest evidence of my suspicions came from when I actually got to talk to him over Facebook.  I tried to discuss science with him, but all he would do was redirect me to some science news website and conveniently avoid discussing anything original.  All he did was mention his friends' ideas.  Also, he got into an argument about global warming with me and a couple of other people, and it showed how narrow minded he was, that he would insist that "global warming is scientifically proven"

If you laugh at people who believe in this

 
 
...in this...
 
... or this ...
  

Why do you believe in everything on the Internet without a logic check before?

 
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 4:49 AM 0 comments
Labels: Internet, Jack Andraka, lies, society, sociopaths

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Let him be judged by his actions, not by his words


Everybody knows his words
His actions:
60% of Venezuelan oil securely delivered to the US
Rewriting the history by removing each town's coat of arms historical Spanish details
Making Venezuelan people claim their independent indigenous roots while opening the country to every US company (and expelling Spanish businesses)
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:00 AM 0 comments
Labels: Chavez, humor, Orwell, USA, Venezuela

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Oyster card potential arbitrage opportunity

I got an Oyster card last October and I noticed there was a deposit for the card. Mine was 5 pounds. My sister had got a card the previous year or even in 2010, and her deposit was 3 pounds.

Imagine this arbitrage opportunity:
Get 100 Oyster before year end/February/whenever they rise the deposit. Assume they raise it by one pound. Return the Oysters and get the new deposit for a gain of 100 pounds.

XD
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 6:11 PM 0 comments
Labels: finance, humor, inflation, UK

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

British go home... XD

This was at Barajas airport




Contextual update later today...

Update: Last year Iberia was merged/sold to British Airways. Workers were promised no harm will come to them. Today they are facing the fire of 3000 employees
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 4:30 AM 0 comments
Labels: crisis, Europe, Iberia, sociopaths, Spain, UK

Monday, February 4, 2013

Message from the Spanish people to the German people

Join us against politicians and bankers or die with them


Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:50 PM 0 comments
Labels: banks, bubble, Credit, ECB, Economy, Germany, sociopaths, Spain

Sunday, February 3, 2013

Brace for impact! Technocrat coming to Spain!

Something's moving in Spain.

The party in power has been accused of illegal financing, with all kind of documents, bills and balance settlements. Important politicians in the PP (Partido Popular) have been reported to have received "envelopes full of cash" during almost 2 decades.

The head of the operation is Luis Bárcenas-Gutiérrez, former accountant within the PP

The fact that he controlled an account in Switzerland with €22 million EUR (something he celebrated with Champagne) was uncovered by the Spanish mainstream media, and then a regular stream of document images, allegations and even admissions to have received cash from the infamous accountant flowed into the media. Even traditional press allies of the PP published these documents.

Now, the question of why this information is being uncovered now remains most suspicious. In a country in which local barons make what they wish, including but not limiting to
  • building airports with no flights (such as Castellon and Ciudad Real). Speaking of Castellon airport, the local government opened the unused airport for somebody to test his brand-new racing car on the ways that were built for airplanes. Someone had a cool day indeed.
  • giving contracts and public jobs to friends and family and publicly saying that it is not only legal but moral
  • dismissing accusations saying that news refer to something from long ago (OK now I'm gonna kill somebody, hide for a day and then say that it's yesterday news and that everything should be forgotten)
  • accusing citizens (and voters!!!!!) to be corrupt and immoral and thus inducing the political class they deserve
No wonder that the Prime Minister is frightened to death

and he decided to calm down everybody and explain himself to remove any shadow of doubt in the most Orwellian visualization

No wonder that many are losing their faith in this "democratic system"



Now, who is behind all this? There is only room for speculation, but most likely it is the Euro-American powers who are dissatisfied with Rajoy's evolution and lack of a plan to ask for a European bank bailout.

Who will be the technocrat? Well, he/she has to be trusted by TPTB, and my take is that it will be either Joaquin Almunia (an economist who lost to Jose M Aznar and has been in Brussels for 13 years) or Esperanza Aguirre (an aristocrat with supreme international connections).


By the way, she is the only one of the leaders within the PP that has not been accused in the scandal.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 6:33 AM 0 comments
Labels: banks, crisis, Europe, sociopaths, Spain, USA

Friday, February 1, 2013

Gold follow up

If any of you is holding EUR, dump them and buy gold. Gold is at 1 year lows, this year France will fall, we can easily retest 1.20 in EURUSD and probably 1.10, remember that the Fed to ECB balance sheet ratio fell since Dec '11 because of Draghi's infamous LTROs.


Spain is zombified like Greece. La France will feel the bait of ferocious hedge funds for the first time. You don't want to be caught in the middle.

There are some good deals. Check German shops such as Anlage Gold and Coin Invest Direct, they have very competitive prices. Silver is a buy too, Anlage Gold has the most competitive prices in this case. Check whether your country has exceeded the VAT allowance with Germany for the year (it depletes soon into the year for countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece, a trend that started two years ago).
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 4:19 PM 0 comments
Labels: Central banks, crisis, ECB, Euro, Europe, Fed, France, Gold, Silver

Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Agriculture blog

Last summer I found out about an agriculture

http://www.bigpictureagriculture.com


In that blog, you can see the reasons why the prices of both basic agricultural commodities were skyrocketing.
[...] the price of wheat rose more than 50 percent from mid-June until its peak in mid-July. By now everyone knows that the global corn and soybean market was greatly affected by our Midwestern drought. The spring wheat crop was good, however, and even though the U.S. produces only 10 percent of the world’s wheat, it is the largest wheat exporter. It was reassuring that throughout this drought season, we knew that global wheat and rice stocks were very ample and much above the levels of the food crisis year 2007/08. So, why did the price of wheat go up so much even though global wheat stocks were 42 percent higher than in 2007/08? In part, it looks like it over-reacted.
One reason was poor weather in some of the other wheat exporting nations. There was too much rain in some of Europe and a lack of rain in Russia, the Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. Russia is the world’s third largest wheat exporter and its yields fell 31 percent from last year, according to CME group. (Why hasn’t Paul Krugman chimed in this time, or has he noticed? Fact is, there are frequent droughts in this region.) Some expect Russia’s available wheat for export will be gone by the end of the year, as producers there have been exporting rapidly in case export restrictions are instated. Spain’s production was down 30 percent due to drought. There is some worry about the next growing season, too. There are dry conditions in Western Australia, the world’s second largest wheat exporter after North America. There are also dry soil conditions in the hard red winter wheat growing region in the U.S., lessened, however, by very recent rains.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:30 PM 0 comments
Labels: commodities, corn, Economy, farming, wheat

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Gold: healthy correction, huge opportunity for EUR buyers

Recalling the EUR/Gold divergences that we spoke about some months ago, we had a nice one on Friday. It has kept the ratio over the first two days of this week so my take is that it might diverge a little bit more, but it would be wise to start a spread long Gold and short EUR. For those with spare EUR to buy gold or any precious metal (which includes a potentially better buy such as silver), this is a nice entry point.

We are in a correction that has lasted more than a year now. Given the deflationary period we are in, markets might get really funny, but it would be good for inflation to raise over 3-5 percent this year. Otherwise we might enter a hard deflation, where cash is kept within financial institutions, and forced out all at once by central bank printing. That is the case where we get hyperinflation. I don't believe it's coming within the next two years. My take is that in 2013 we will see high inflation, in 2014 will be a turning point in which there will be a deflation and, depending on how hard it is, there will either be another cycle of the same (high inflation for 2015 after central bank printing) or we will enter the final hyperinflationary stage.

Well, there are some people that still rely on their governments. After all, they will always be able to resort to their (tungsten) reserves or, in this case, to something you can really eat


Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:14 PM 0 comments
Labels: banks, Central banks, Credit, deflation, Euro, Europe, EURUSD, finance, Gold, humor, inflation, Silver, speculation, trading

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

The Middle East: Somebody still thinks it is incidental?

Everybody knows that selling oil in any currency other than the USD is very dangerous, let it be EUR (Saddam Hussein) or gold (Muhammar Al-Gadhafi).

Let's look at this Middle East map:


From Zerohedge, the Iranian currency, the rial, has crumbled a 70% since the EU and the USA imposed sanctions on the country.
When President Obama signed the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act, in July 2010, the official Iranian rial-U.S. dollar exchange rate was very close to the black-market rate. But, as the accompanying chart shows, the official and black-market rates have increasingly diverged since July 2010. This decline began to accelerate last month, when Iranians witnessed a dramatic 9.65% drop in the value of the rial, over the course of a single weekend (8-10 September 2012). The free-fall has continued since then. On 2 October 2012, the black-market exchange rate reached 35,000 IRR/USD – a rate which reflects a 65% decline in the rial, relative to the U.S. dollar.
In my opinion, the end game is in sight. Energy resources will be controlled by a small elite, and most of us will perish or will be become defacto slaves. A very nasty future lies ahead.
Posted by Analytic Bastard at 12:46 PM 0 comments
Labels: crisis, currency, Economy, Energy, inflation, Iran, USA

Monday, January 21, 2013

Orwell

Anarcho-Capitalism is something unknown and very contradicting to the ears of an European.

Anyhow, here's something interesting that I came across at their forums



Posted by Analytic Bastard at 3:15 PM 0 comments
Labels: Huxley, Orwell, society, sociopaths

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Spanish government pardons a man conviced of running over a 23 years-old male

The Spanish government, who by a God-granted law has the right to pardon convicted felons, has commanded that a man who killed another while he was driving in opposite direction. It is known that the son of the Justice Minister works at the law firm that represents the felon. Here is the complete "royal" law
Real Decreto 1668/2012, de 7 de diciembre, por el que se indulta a don
RAMÓN JORGE RÍOS SALGADO
Visto el expediente de indulto de don Ramón Jorge Ríos Salgado, condenado por la
Audiencia Provincial de Valencia, sección cuarta, en sentencia de 17 de enero de 2011,
como autor de un delito de conducción con grave desprecio para la vida de los demás en
concurso ideal con un delito de homicidio, un delito de lesiones, una falta de lesiones y
una falta de daños, a la pena de trece años de prisión e inhabilitación especial para el
derecho de sufragio pasivo durante el tiempo de la condena, por hechos cometidos en el
año 2003, en el que se han considerado los informes del Tribunal sentenciador y del
Ministerio Fiscal, a propuesta del Ministro de Justicia y previa deliberación del Consejo de
Ministros en su reunión del día 7 de diciembre de 2012,
Vengo en conmutar a don Ramón Jorge Ríos Salgado la pena privativa de libertad
pendiente de cumplimiento por otra de dos años de multa, que se satisfará en cuotas
diarias de seis euros cuyo inicio y forma de cumplimiento serán determinados por el
Tribunal sentenciador, a condición de que abone las responsabilidades civiles fijadas en
la sentencia en el plazo que determine el Tribunal sentenciador y no vuelva a cometer
delito doloso en el plazo de cinco años desde la publicación del real decreto.
Dado en Madrid, el 7 de diciembre de 2012.
JUAN CARLOS R.
El Ministro de Justicia,
ALBERTO RUIZ-GALLARDÓN JIMÉNEZ
 It is rumored that the killer, whose surname is Salgado, is a relative of the former socialist Finance Minister.

This case, along with the final "royal" decree signed by former socialist government, pardoning the banker Alfredo Saez, Botín's deputy director at Santander Bank, offers a rather crappy view of the state of things in Spain.

If you have an account in Santander UK (former Abbey), or Santander anywhere else, or hold Spanish debt (doubtful), you better close it up or sell into the market now that the market offers you a chance by relaxing the pressure over Spanish sovereign debt.

Posted by Analytic Bastard at 12:21 PM 0 comments
Labels: debt, sociopaths, Spain
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Machinomics

Machinomics
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